Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 20 07 17:10 GMT | Forex Weekly Review and Outlook Yen Weakness, Sterling Strength, Dollar and Euro Mixed The Japanese yen continued its slide across the board last week, breaking to new multi-year lows, in particular after BoJ kept rate unchanged 0.25%. On the other hand, Sterling maintained recent strength and soars across the board with support from strong data. The greenback was mixed despite a series of solid data. The story of the...
Daily Report: Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
February 16, 2007 on 1:02 pm | In |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 23 07 07:44 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
The Japanese yen continues to be under pressure today as it dips further to fresh 8 year low against Sterling at 240.86. USD/JPY also hover near to 4 year high resistance. Dec BoJ minutes revealed that board members voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 0.25% at Dec meeting on concern that personal consumption nand spending are relatively weak and the bank will need to examine more economic data before going for a rate hike. Some market participants has taken the vote of 6-3 to keep rates unchanged in the Jan meeting as a shift of bias in the BoJ and speculate the bank will raise rate in Feb. But BoJ’s stance remains unclear.
Elsewhere, Sterling strengthens mildly into European session while dollar continues to be bounded in tight range against Euro and Swissy. San Francisco Fed Yellen, a known dove, reiterated yesterday that Fed’s policy may now be “well-position”. Chicago Fed Moskow, a known hawk, announced that he will retail on Aug 31 this year.
Data to be released today include Eurozone industrial new orders, UK CBI industrial trend and postponed US leading indicators. reactions to these data could be mild. Dec Canadian CPI will also be closely watched today and is expected to rise 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy, with core CPI staying flat and rising 2.3% yoy. Canadian dollar has weakened further to 1.1835 against dollar yesterday. And should today’s CPI data came in as expected, that will be inline with BoC’s expectation that inflation will gradually trend back to the bank’s target of 2% and keep rate outlook neutral. Canadian dollar will likely remain pressured. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2923; (P) 1.2950; (R1) 1.2976; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD continues to be bounded in choppy sideway ranging inside established range of 1.2896 and 1.2998 today. Outlook remains unchanged as further consolidation is still in favor as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2896 support and risk for another rise remains. But still, we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057) and decline resumption. On the downside, below 1.2896 support will bring retest of 1.2867 low. Break will confirm that the fall from 1.3296 has resumed for 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, in particular, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760, which will probably have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2732) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2853). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9723; (P) 1.9754; (R1) 1.9793; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
Cable’s retreat from 1.9777 was contained above 1.9692 support and then edges higher to 1.9792 today. But, upside momentum is unconvincing with bearish divergence conditions remain in 4 hours MACD and RSI, suggesting a short term top could be around the corner. Nevertheless, further rise is still expected to follow towards 1.9846 resistance as long as 1.9716 support holds.
Below 1.9716 will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9654 or lower.) But still, we’d expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Hence, further rally is expected to follow to 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917. But, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).
On the downside, below 1.9452 cluster support will argue that price actions from 1.9846 is developing into extended consolidation and will shift focus back to 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2494; (R1) 1.2519; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to engage in choppy sideway trading between 1.2415 and 1.2546 today. Outlook remains unchanged so that even though price actions from 1.2528 could be developing in to extended sideway consolidation, further rise is still mildly in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2415 support.
However, below 1.2415 support will suggest a short term top is formed and encourage further pull back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2380. But downside should be contained by 1.2270 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2276) and bring further rally.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.2501/72 resistance zone (100% projection of 1.1878 to 1.2268 from 1.2111 at 1.2501 and medium term falling trend line resistance from 1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2572) will indicate whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746). On the downside, sustained break of 1.2270 cluster support will suggest that the whole rise from 1.1878 has possibly completed and put focus back to 1.2110 support. Break will shift focus back to the downside for 1.1878 low.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.30; (P) 121.53; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY turns sideway after reaching as high as 121.77 and retreats mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is still expected to follow towards 123.23/29 cluster projection target. However, below 121.17 will suggest an intraday top is formed and risk pullback towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.71).
Also, as long as USD/JPY is kept inside short term rising channel (now at 119.93), the rise from 114.41 is still in progress. Any interim consolidation still be brief and rally is expected to resume sooner rather than later. However, sustained break of the channel, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, will indicate the rise from 114.41 has completed and deeper correction should be seen towards 117.96 support.
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. Sustained break will confirm such case and bring further rally to next upside target at 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29). However, sustained break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this case.
Forex News Digest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ayYH6E_jgr50&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=asaFxUrJsbek&refer=currency
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779217971
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:24:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779200139
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:03:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779187064
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from Nine MSN
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779134138
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:56:00 GMT from ABC Money
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779089778
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:11:00 GMT from Yahoo! Singapore
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BOJ meeting minutes Dec
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order M/M Nov 1.00% -0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order Y/Y Nov 6.00% 12.50%
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI industrial trend Jan -6 -5
12:00 CAD Canada CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI Y/Y Dec 1.70% 1.40%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core M/M Dec 0.00% 0.30%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core Y/Y Dec 2.30% 2.20%
13:30 CAD Canada Leading indicator Dec 0.40% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales M/M Nov 0.80% -0.70%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales ex auto M/M Nov 0.50% -0.70%
15:00 USD U.S. Leading indicators Dec 0.20% 0.10%
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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Oil Slides on Inventory Data »It is no longer boring to talk about the weather. For critics of Al Gore’s theories on global warming, this winter has been inconveniently nonexistent in the Northeast. Seeing flip-flop-wearing families in the park on a New York Saturday morning in January is just not normal. The topic is also no longer the usual taboo because the unseasonable warmth has driven down the price of natural gas and heating oil. But things aren’t always as they seem, and the weather, commodities prices...
MUNICH: Prosecutors looking into charges of corruption at Siemens said Thursday that they were investigating the company’s former chief financial officer, Heinz-Joachim Neubьrger. Neubьrger was questioned Tuesday, the Munich state prosecutor Christian Schmidt-Sommerfeld said. He was confirming reports in the Sьddeutsche Zeitung newspaper and the Spiegel news magazine but declined to comment further. The investigation came as the Siemens chief executive, Klaus Kleinfeld, told employees...
Daily Report: Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
February 4, 2007 on 10:42 am | In |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 23 07 07:44 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
The Japanese yen continues to be under pressure today as it dips further to fresh 8 year low against Sterling at 240.86. USD/JPY also hover near to 4 year high resistance. Dec BoJ minutes revealed that board members voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 0.25% at Dec meeting on concern that personal consumption nand spending are relatively weak and the bank will need to examine more economic data before going for a rate hike. Some market participants has taken the vote of 6-3 to keep rates unchanged in the Jan meeting as a shift of bias in the BoJ and speculate the bank will raise rate in Feb. But BoJ’s stance remains unclear.
Elsewhere, Sterling strengthens mildly into European session while dollar continues to be bounded in tight range against Euro and Swissy. San Francisco Fed Yellen, a known dove, reiterated yesterday that Fed’s policy may now be “well-position”. Chicago Fed Moskow, a known hawk, announced that he will retail on Aug 31 this year.
Data to be released today include Eurozone industrial new orders, UK CBI industrial trend and postponed US leading indicators. reactions to these data could be mild. Dec Canadian CPI will also be closely watched today and is expected to rise 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy, with core CPI staying flat and rising 2.3% yoy. Canadian dollar has weakened further to 1.1835 against dollar yesterday. And should today’s CPI data came in as expected, that will be inline with BoC’s expectation that inflation will gradually trend back to the bank’s target of 2% and keep rate outlook neutral. Canadian dollar will likely remain pressured. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2923; (P) 1.2950; (R1) 1.2976; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD continues to be bounded in choppy sideway ranging inside established range of 1.2896 and 1.2998 today. Outlook remains unchanged as further consolidation is still in favor as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2896 support and risk for another rise remains. But still, we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057) and decline resumption. On the downside, below 1.2896 support will bring retest of 1.2867 low. Break will confirm that the fall from 1.3296 has resumed for 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, in particular, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760, which will probably have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2732) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2853). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9723; (P) 1.9754; (R1) 1.9793; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
Cable’s retreat from 1.9777 was contained above 1.9692 support and then edges higher to 1.9792 today. But, upside momentum is unconvincing with bearish divergence conditions remain in 4 hours MACD and RSI, suggesting a short term top could be around the corner. Nevertheless, further rise is still expected to follow towards 1.9846 resistance as long as 1.9716 support holds.
Below 1.9716 will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9654 or lower.) But still, we’d expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Hence, further rally is expected to follow to 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917. But, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).
On the downside, below 1.9452 cluster support will argue that price actions from 1.9846 is developing into extended consolidation and will shift focus back to 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2494; (R1) 1.2519; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to engage in choppy sideway trading between 1.2415 and 1.2546 today. Outlook remains unchanged so that even though price actions from 1.2528 could be developing in to extended sideway consolidation, further rise is still mildly in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2415 support.
However, below 1.2415 support will suggest a short term top is formed and encourage further pull back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2380. But downside should be contained by 1.2270 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2276) and bring further rally.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.2501/72 resistance zone (100% projection of 1.1878 to 1.2268 from 1.2111 at 1.2501 and medium term falling trend line resistance from 1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2572) will indicate whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746). On the downside, sustained break of 1.2270 cluster support will suggest that the whole rise from 1.1878 has possibly completed and put focus back to 1.2110 support. Break will shift focus back to the downside for 1.1878 low.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.30; (P) 121.53; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY turns sideway after reaching as high as 121.77 and retreats mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is still expected to follow towards 123.23/29 cluster projection target. However, below 121.17 will suggest an intraday top is formed and risk pullback towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.71).
Also, as long as USD/JPY is kept inside short term rising channel (now at 119.93), the rise from 114.41 is still in progress. Any interim consolidation still be brief and rally is expected to resume sooner rather than later. However, sustained break of the channel, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, will indicate the rise from 114.41 has completed and deeper correction should be seen towards 117.96 support.
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. Sustained break will confirm such case and bring further rally to next upside target at 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29). However, sustained break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this case.
Forex News Digest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ayYH6E_jgr50&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=asaFxUrJsbek&refer=currency
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779217971
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:24:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779200139
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:03:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779187064
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from Nine MSN
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779134138
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:56:00 GMT from ABC Money
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779089778
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:11:00 GMT from Yahoo! Singapore
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BOJ meeting minutes Dec
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order M/M Nov 1.00% -0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order Y/Y Nov 6.00% 12.50%
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI industrial trend Jan -6 -5
12:00 CAD Canada CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI Y/Y Dec 1.70% 1.40%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core M/M Dec 0.00% 0.30%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core Y/Y Dec 2.30% 2.20%
13:30 CAD Canada Leading indicator Dec 0.40% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales M/M Nov 0.80% -0.70%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales ex auto M/M Nov 0.50% -0.70%
15:00 USD U.S. Leading indicators Dec 0.20% 0.10%
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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Grab your mouse and enjoy a trip down memory lane »IT was a time when a new house cost just a few hundred pounds, home births were the norm, and Juniper Green was a thriving industrial centre. Now residents of the well-heeled commuter suburb are to be transported back to those bygone days to celebrate the settlement’s 300th anniversary. Local historians have collected memories, tales and photographs from some of Juniper Green’s longest-standing residents. They will be broadcast to the world when the JG300 website is launched...
Researchers at Ind. Univ. found that children who play violent video games have less activity in the part of the brain that regulates self-control. The findings are similar to a Kan. State Univ. study that tested violent movies. Neither study researched whether the drop in activity remained a long time or whether brain activity returned to normal shortly after children played or watched violent things. British online ad spending surges Five years ago British companies spent half as much as...
Daily Report: Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
January 23, 2007 on 8:41 am | In Currency |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 23 07 07:44 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Yen Remains Pressured, Sterling Strengthens into European Session
The Japanese yen continues to be under pressure today as it dips further to fresh 8 year low against Sterling at 240.86. USD/JPY also hover near to 4 year high resistance. Dec BoJ minutes revealed that board members voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 0.25% at Dec meeting on concern that personal consumption nand spending are relatively weak and the bank will need to examine more economic data before going for a rate hike. Some market participants has taken the vote of 6-3 to keep rates unchanged in the Jan meeting as a shift of bias in the BoJ and speculate the bank will raise rate in Feb. But BoJ’s stance remains unclear.
Elsewhere, Sterling strengthens mildly into European session while dollar continues to be bounded in tight range against Euro and Swissy. San Francisco Fed Yellen, a known dove, reiterated yesterday that Fed’s policy may now be “well-position”. Chicago Fed Moskow, a known hawk, announced that he will retail on Aug 31 this year.
Data to be released today include Eurozone industrial new orders, UK CBI industrial trend and postponed US leading indicators. reactions to these data could be mild. Dec Canadian CPI will also be closely watched today and is expected to rise 0.2% mom, 1.7% yoy, with core CPI staying flat and rising 2.3% yoy. Canadian dollar has weakened further to 1.1835 against dollar yesterday. And should today’s CPI data came in as expected, that will be inline with BoC’s expectation that inflation will gradually trend back to the bank’s target of 2% and keep rate outlook neutral. Canadian dollar will likely remain pressured. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2923; (P) 1.2950; (R1) 1.2976; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD continues to be bounded in choppy sideway ranging inside established range of 1.2896 and 1.2998 today. Outlook remains unchanged as further consolidation is still in favor as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2896 support and risk for another rise remains. But still, we’d expect upside to be limited by 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057) and decline resumption. On the downside, below 1.2896 support will bring retest of 1.2867 low. Break will confirm that the fall from 1.3296 has resumed for 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, in particular, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760, which will probably have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2732) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
On the upside, sustained break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2853). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9723; (P) 1.9754; (R1) 1.9793; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
Cable’s retreat from 1.9777 was contained above 1.9692 support and then edges higher to 1.9792 today. But, upside momentum is unconvincing with bearish divergence conditions remain in 4 hours MACD and RSI, suggesting a short term top could be around the corner. Nevertheless, further rise is still expected to follow towards 1.9846 resistance as long as 1.9716 support holds.
Below 1.9716 will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9654 or lower.) But still, we’d expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Hence, further rally is expected to follow to 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917. But, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).
On the downside, below 1.9452 cluster support will argue that price actions from 1.9846 is developing into extended consolidation and will shift focus back to 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2494; (R1) 1.2519; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to engage in choppy sideway trading between 1.2415 and 1.2546 today. Outlook remains unchanged so that even though price actions from 1.2528 could be developing in to extended sideway consolidation, further rise is still mildly in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2415 support.
However, below 1.2415 support will suggest a short term top is formed and encourage further pull back to 38.2% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2380. But downside should be contained by 1.2270 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2111 to 1.2546 at 1.2276) and bring further rally.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.2501/72 resistance zone (100% projection of 1.1878 to 1.2268 from 1.2111 at 1.2501 and medium term falling trend line resistance from 1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2572) will indicate whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746). On the downside, sustained break of 1.2270 cluster support will suggest that the whole rise from 1.1878 has possibly completed and put focus back to 1.2110 support. Break will shift focus back to the downside for 1.1878 low.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.30; (P) 121.53; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY turns sideway after reaching as high as 121.77 and retreats mildly. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is still expected to follow towards 123.23/29 cluster projection target. However, below 121.17 will suggest an intraday top is formed and risk pullback towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.71).
Also, as long as USD/JPY is kept inside short term rising channel (now at 119.93), the rise from 114.41 is still in progress. Any interim consolidation still be brief and rally is expected to resume sooner rather than later. However, sustained break of the channel, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, will indicate the rise from 114.41 has completed and deeper correction should be seen towards 117.96 support.
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. Sustained break will confirm such case and bring further rally to next upside target at 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29). However, sustained break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this case.
Forex News Digest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ayYH6E_jgr50&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=asaFxUrJsbek&refer=currency
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779217971
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:24:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779200139
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 03:03:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779187064
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 02:48:00 GMT from Nine MSN
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779134138
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:56:00 GMT from ABC Money
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r779089778
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 01:11:00 GMT from Yahoo! Singapore
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BOJ meeting minutes Dec
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order M/M Nov 1.00% -0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Ind’l new order Y/Y Nov 6.00% 12.50%
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI industrial trend Jan -6 -5
12:00 CAD Canada CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.20%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI Y/Y Dec 1.70% 1.40%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core M/M Dec 0.00% 0.30%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core Y/Y Dec 2.30% 2.20%
13:30 CAD Canada Leading indicator Dec 0.40% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales M/M Nov 0.80% -0.70%
13:30 CAD Canada Retail sales ex auto M/M Nov 0.50% -0.70%
15:00 USD U.S. Leading indicators Dec 0.20% 0.10%
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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