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Daily Report: Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
February 15, 2007 on 3:13 pm | In |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 30 07 09:12 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct’s 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE’s target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.
Other focus of today include Germany inflation data. Jan CPI is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth but with yoy growth accelerated from 1.4% to 2.2%. Similarly HICP is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth with yoy growth accelerated to 2.4%.
The Japanese yen, despite recovering mildly against dollar, remains generally weak across the board after weak household spending that which dropped more than expected by 1.9% in Dec, comparing to consensus of 1.2% fall. Jobless rate also rose to 4.l1%. Though, Dec industrial production came in better than expectation by rising 0.7% mom, 4.6% yoy. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2913; (P) 1.2939; (R1) 1.2980; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.3042 has reached as low as 1.2876 but subsequent recovery has pushed EUR/USD above 1.2935 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed above signal line, suggesting that a short term low is in place. At this point, further recovery is expected to follow as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2905 minor support. Break above 1.3000 resistance will indicate that the consolidation from 1.2865 is indeed still in progress. Focus will be back to 1.3042 high and 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057).
On the downside, below 1.3905 will bring retest of 1.2865 low and and then trend line support at 1.2846. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed for next downside target of 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2748) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
However, decisive break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2851). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9564; (P) 1.9590; (R1) 1.9633; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.
In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2507; (P) 1.2533; (R1) 1.2557; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to struggle below mentioned medium term falling trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2548). 4 hours MACD is dragged below signal line by the current sideway consolidation. But still, further rally is in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2486 minor support. Sustained break of the trend line resistance should bring further rise towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746)
On the downside, below 1.2486 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but pullback should be contained above 1.2422 support and bring rally resumption. A break below 1.2422 support is needed to shift focus back to the downside to 1.2374 low. Otherwise, consolidation should be brief and rally should resume sooner rather than later.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of medium term trend line resistance will also indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance first. Decisive break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.
On the downside, below 1.2374 will have the short term rising channel (now at 1.2411) taken out too and will indicate the whole rebound from 1.1878 has possible made a top after failing to break 1.2501/49 resistance zone decisively. Deeper correction should then be seen towards 1.2268 resistance turned support in such case.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.77; (R1) 122.13; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY’s consolidation from 122.17 continues today with a brief break below 121.68 minor support. At this point further consolidation cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays below 121.17 high and risk remain for another pull back to 121.22 support or lower. However, rise from 114.41 is still in force as long as USD/JPY stays within short term rising channel (lower channel line at 120.88 now) and any interim consolidation should be brief. Further rally is still expected to be seen towards 123.23/29 cluster projection level
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. With price actions from 117.87 to 114.41 treated as interim consolidation, next upside target will be 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29).
On the downside, sustained break of the short term rising channel will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back towards 117.96 support. Also, as bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI, this would also be a warning that a much deeper decline is underway.
Forex News Digest
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788434054
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 06:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788413213
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:54:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788396329
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:38:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788387883
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:29:00 GMT from AOL
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788369247
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:12:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788367112
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:10:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Japan Jobless rate Dec 4.10% 4.00% 4.00%
23:30 JPY Japan Household Spending Dec -1.90% -1.30% -0.70%
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial prod’n M/M Dec 0.70% 0.40% 0.70%
23:50 JPY JapanIndustrial prod’n Y/Y Dec 4.60% 4.30% 4.90%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price M/M Jan 0.30% 1.00% 1.20%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price Y/Y Jan 9.30% 10.00% 10.50%
EUR Germany Retail sales M/M Dec 1.50% -0.70%
EUR Germany Retail sales Y/Y Dec 0.80% -0.40%
EUR Germany CPI M/M Jan 0.40% 0.80%
EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jan 2.20% 1.40%
EUR Germany HICP M/M Jan 0.40% 0.90%
EUR Germany HICP Y/Y Jan 2.40% 1.40%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI M/M Dec 0.50% 0.00%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI Y/Y Dec N/A 1.90%
15:00 USD U.S. Consumer confidence Jan 109.1 109
21:45 NZD NZ Trade Balance (nzd) Dec 0.415 B 0.785 B
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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Fedspeak, Intel Curb the Markets’ Enthusiasm »Updated from 4:17 p.m. EST A selloff in shares of Intel (INTC) dragged the tech sector lower Wednesday, while strength in energy and mining stocks minimized the losses for blue chips. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, coming off its latest record close, slipped 5.44 points, or 0.04%, to 12,577.15, and the S&P 500 gave back 1.28 points, or 0.09%, to 1430.62. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer of the major indices, dropping 18.36 points, or 0.74%, to 2479.42. Volume was again...
- Brown calls handling of Saddam execution ‘completely unacceptable’ - Downing Street later describes manner of death as ‘completely wrong’ - Brown interview reveals more on what his future in office may hold Key quote “Obviously, I will speak my mind, I’ll be very frank. The British national interest is what I and my colleagues are about.” - GORDON BROWN Story in full GORDON Brown yesterday moved to announce himself as the pre-eminent figure...
Daily Report: Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
February 4, 2007 on 12:52 am | In |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 30 07 09:12 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct’s 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE’s target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.
Other focus of today include Germany inflation data. Jan CPI is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth but with yoy growth accelerated from 1.4% to 2.2%. Similarly HICP is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth with yoy growth accelerated to 2.4%.
The Japanese yen, despite recovering mildly against dollar, remains generally weak across the board after weak household spending that which dropped more than expected by 1.9% in Dec, comparing to consensus of 1.2% fall. Jobless rate also rose to 4.l1%. Though, Dec industrial production came in better than expectation by rising 0.7% mom, 4.6% yoy. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2913; (P) 1.2939; (R1) 1.2980; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.3042 has reached as low as 1.2876 but subsequent recovery has pushed EUR/USD above 1.2935 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed above signal line, suggesting that a short term low is in place. At this point, further recovery is expected to follow as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2905 minor support. Break above 1.3000 resistance will indicate that the consolidation from 1.2865 is indeed still in progress. Focus will be back to 1.3042 high and 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057).
On the downside, below 1.3905 will bring retest of 1.2865 low and and then trend line support at 1.2846. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed for next downside target of 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2748) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
However, decisive break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2851). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9564; (P) 1.9590; (R1) 1.9633; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.
In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2507; (P) 1.2533; (R1) 1.2557; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to struggle below mentioned medium term falling trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2548). 4 hours MACD is dragged below signal line by the current sideway consolidation. But still, further rally is in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2486 minor support. Sustained break of the trend line resistance should bring further rise towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746)
On the downside, below 1.2486 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but pullback should be contained above 1.2422 support and bring rally resumption. A break below 1.2422 support is needed to shift focus back to the downside to 1.2374 low. Otherwise, consolidation should be brief and rally should resume sooner rather than later.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of medium term trend line resistance will also indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance first. Decisive break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.
On the downside, below 1.2374 will have the short term rising channel (now at 1.2411) taken out too and will indicate the whole rebound from 1.1878 has possible made a top after failing to break 1.2501/49 resistance zone decisively. Deeper correction should then be seen towards 1.2268 resistance turned support in such case.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.77; (R1) 122.13; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY’s consolidation from 122.17 continues today with a brief break below 121.68 minor support. At this point further consolidation cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays below 121.17 high and risk remain for another pull back to 121.22 support or lower. However, rise from 114.41 is still in force as long as USD/JPY stays within short term rising channel (lower channel line at 120.88 now) and any interim consolidation should be brief. Further rally is still expected to be seen towards 123.23/29 cluster projection level
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. With price actions from 117.87 to 114.41 treated as interim consolidation, next upside target will be 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29).
On the downside, sustained break of the short term rising channel will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back towards 117.96 support. Also, as bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI, this would also be a warning that a much deeper decline is underway.
Forex News Digest
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788434054
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 06:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788413213
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:54:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788396329
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:38:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788387883
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:29:00 GMT from AOL
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788369247
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:12:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788367112
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:10:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Japan Jobless rate Dec 4.10% 4.00% 4.00%
23:30 JPY Japan Household Spending Dec -1.90% -1.30% -0.70%
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial prod’n M/M Dec 0.70% 0.40% 0.70%
23:50 JPY JapanIndustrial prod’n Y/Y Dec 4.60% 4.30% 4.90%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price M/M Jan 0.30% 1.00% 1.20%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price Y/Y Jan 9.30% 10.00% 10.50%
EUR Germany Retail sales M/M Dec 1.50% -0.70%
EUR Germany Retail sales Y/Y Dec 0.80% -0.40%
EUR Germany CPI M/M Jan 0.40% 0.80%
EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jan 2.20% 1.40%
EUR Germany HICP M/M Jan 0.40% 0.90%
EUR Germany HICP Y/Y Jan 2.40% 1.40%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI M/M Dec 0.50% 0.00%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI Y/Y Dec N/A 1.90%
15:00 USD U.S. Consumer confidence Jan 109.1 109
21:45 NZD NZ Trade Balance (nzd) Dec 0.415 B 0.785 B
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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Sunday & mid-week share tips »For the Mail on Sunday’s stock picks read the Sunday Telegraph , which makes cooked meats, sausages, bacon, pasta and sandwiches, is likely to have benefited from the Christmas trend - reported by and in recent days - that saw shoppers trade up to premium ranges. At its interim results in November, Cranswick reported sales up by 14% and profits 11% higher. The company, which produces sausages on behalf of Duchy Originals, is expected to release an upbeat trading statement over...
THE Dumbiedykes flats are to be clad in green and white as part of a multi-million-pound project to revamp the run-down estate. Work on the 3.4 million redevelopment began at the end of last month, following years of negotiations between council officials and homeowners. The 20-month project will see green and white external insulation tiles and waterproof roof coverings fitted to Lochview Court and Holyrood Court. Stairwells and walkways in the high-rises will also be redecorated, asbestos...
Daily Report: Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
January 31, 2007 on 4:50 am | In Currency |
Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Jan 30 07 09:12 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Sterling Rebounds, Dollar Retreats
Sterling staged a strong rebound across the board after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose clients include UK Treasury and BoE, raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth to 2.75% this year, from Oct’s 2.5% forecast. Also, one more rate hike is needed to bring inflation back to BoE’s target of 2%. Sterling remains firm despite a weaker than expected housing report showing Nationwide House Price Index slowed to 0.3% mom, 9.3% yoy growth in Jan. Meanwhile, dollar retreats today ahead of Jan conference board consumer confidence which is expected to rise slightly from 109.0 to 109.1.
Other focus of today include Germany inflation data. Jan CPI is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth but with yoy growth accelerated from 1.4% to 2.2%. Similarly HICP is expected to slow to 0.4% mom growth with yoy growth accelerated to 2.4%.
The Japanese yen, despite recovering mildly against dollar, remains generally weak across the board after weak household spending that which dropped more than expected by 1.9% in Dec, comparing to consensus of 1.2% fall. Jobless rate also rose to 4.l1%. Though, Dec industrial production came in better than expectation by rising 0.7% mom, 4.6% yoy. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2913; (P) 1.2939; (R1) 1.2980; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.3042 has reached as low as 1.2876 but subsequent recovery has pushed EUR/USD above 1.2935 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed above signal line, suggesting that a short term low is in place. At this point, further recovery is expected to follow as long as EUR/USD stays above 1.2905 minor support. Break above 1.3000 resistance will indicate that the consolidation from 1.2865 is indeed still in progress. Focus will be back to 1.3042 high and 1.3052 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2867 at 1.3057).
On the downside, below 1.3905 will bring retest of 1.2865 low and and then trend line support at 1.2846. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed for next downside target of 1.2760 support.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top could be in place at 1.3364 already, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.2760 support, which will also have medium term rising channel line (now at 1.2748) taken out too, will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Focus will then be on 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502). Decisive break of 1.2483 cluster support will confirm this case and have medium term outlook turned bearish.
However, decisive break of 1.3052 cluster resistance will indicate the fall from 1.3364 has possibly completed after drawing support from resistance line (1.2978 to 1.2937, now at 1.2851). This will also save the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel. Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a top on above mentioned bearish divergence condition in weekly chart.
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9564; (P) 1.9590; (R1) 1.9633; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
After failing to stay firmly below 1.9588 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9913 at 1.9587), cable stages a strong rebound today, breaking above 1.9769 resistance with 4 hours MACD pushed back above signal line. The fall from 1.9913 should have already completed at 1.9547. At this point, further rebound is expected to follow as long as cable stays above 1.9614 support. Break of 1.9735 resistance will encourage a retest of 1.9913 high. On the downside, below 1.9614 again will put 1.9547 low back into focus and bring will indicate fall from 1.9913 has resumed for rising trend line (1.8517 to 1.8834, now at 1.9471) support.
In the bigger picture, a strong break above 1.9679 resistance will that case that rally from 1.9261 is still in progress. In such case, further rise could be seen to retest 1.9913 high and break will confirm whole rally from 1.8517 has resumed. But still, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067) as the whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 could complete at or below this level.
Right now, we already have bearish divergence conditions in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI. Sustained break of 1.9588 cluster support will be the a warning that whole rise from 1.8517 has completed earlier than we thought. Break of mentioned rising trend line support will confirm such case and bring much deeper decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237). Decisive break of this 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed and much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818).
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2507; (P) 1.2533; (R1) 1.2557; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.
USD/CHF continues to struggle below mentioned medium term falling trend line resistance (1.3238 to 1.2768, now at 1.2548). 4 hours MACD is dragged below signal line by the current sideway consolidation. But still, further rally is in favor as long as USD/CHF stays above 1.2486 minor support. Sustained break of the trend line resistance should bring further rise towards 1.2768 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746)
On the downside, below 1.2486 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but pullback should be contained above 1.2422 support and bring rally resumption. A break below 1.2422 support is needed to shift focus back to the downside to 1.2374 low. Otherwise, consolidation should be brief and rally should resume sooner rather than later.
In the bigger picture, decisive break of medium term trend line resistance will also indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance first. Decisive break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.
On the downside, below 1.2374 will have the short term rising channel (now at 1.2411) taken out too and will indicate the whole rebound from 1.1878 has possible made a top after failing to break 1.2501/49 resistance zone decisively. Deeper correction should then be seen towards 1.2268 resistance turned support in such case.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.77; (R1) 122.13; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY’s consolidation from 122.17 continues today with a brief break below 121.68 minor support. At this point further consolidation cannot be ruled out as long as USD/JPY stays below 121.17 high and risk remain for another pull back to 121.22 support or lower. However, rise from 114.41 is still in force as long as USD/JPY stays within short term rising channel (lower channel line at 120.88 now) and any interim consolidation should be brief. Further rally is still expected to be seen towards 123.23/29 cluster projection level
In the bigger picture, as medium term rally from 108.99 is still in force, such rally is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.65 for the moment. With price actions from 117.87 to 114.41 treated as interim consolidation, next upside target will be 123.23/29 cluster projection level (100% projection of 114.41 to 119.68 from 117.96 at 123.23. 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29).
On the downside, sustained break of the short term rising channel will indicate a short term top is formed and should bring pull back towards 117.96 support. Also, as bearish divergence condition remains in 4 hours MACD and RSI, this would also be a warning that a much deeper decline is underway.
Forex News Digest
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788434054
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 06:13:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788413213
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:54:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788396329
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:38:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788387883
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:29:00 GMT from AOL
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788369247
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:12:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r788367112
Tue, 30 Jan 2007 05:10:00 GMT from Servihoo.com
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Japan Jobless rate Dec 4.10% 4.00% 4.00%
23:30 JPY Japan Household Spending Dec -1.90% -1.30% -0.70%
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial prod’n M/M Dec 0.70% 0.40% 0.70%
23:50 JPY JapanIndustrial prod’n Y/Y Dec 4.60% 4.30% 4.90%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price M/M Jan 0.30% 1.00% 1.20%
7:00 GBP U.K. Nat’wide hse price Y/Y Jan 9.30% 10.00% 10.50%
EUR Germany Retail sales M/M Dec 1.50% -0.70%
EUR Germany Retail sales Y/Y Dec 0.80% -0.40%
EUR Germany CPI M/M Jan 0.40% 0.80%
EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jan 2.20% 1.40%
EUR Germany HICP M/M Jan 0.40% 0.90%
EUR Germany HICP Y/Y Jan 2.40% 1.40%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI M/M Dec 0.50% 0.00%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI Y/Y Dec N/A 1.90%
15:00 USD U.S. Consumer confidence Jan 109.1 109
21:45 NZD NZ Trade Balance (nzd) Dec 0.415 B 0.785 B
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/
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